papal conclave 2013: chance for a first?

Early last fall, I followed the presidential elections with a series of posts. Of course the papal conclave is a whole different beast altogether. This year's papal election isn't a regularly scheduled one like the presidential election is. This is entirely driven by the vacating of the papacy by Benedict XVI, who shocked the catholic world with his resignation, effective 11 days ago. The college of cardinals are gathering at the Vatican as we speak to elect (realistically) one of their own to be elevated to the post of the bishop of rome. Of course, theoretically anyone who has been baptized as a catholic is eligible to be elected, however realistically it will be one of the cardinals locked in the conclave. 

Of course speculation on who will become the next pope is rampant as everyone is curious to see who will take on the mantle of leadership in the Catholic Church during a trying time as this. I've always wondered how cardinals "run" for pope. I would assume that they can't appear to be campaigning while at the same time rounding up votes. Of course, the roughly 5,000+ reporters in town for the conclave are looking for any whiff of information that may indicate who the cardinals are going to be voting for. 

The frontrunners appear to be Cardinals Angelo Scola (Italy), Odilo Scherer (Brazil), Peter Turkson (Ghana), Marc Ouellet (Canada), and Timothy Dolan (USA). Of course the Italian is in the lead. This year, however, so many potential firsts could happen, as there's the possibility of the first South American pope (Scherer), or the first black pope (Turkson), or first North American pope (Ouellet or Dolan). Even the former bishop of hong kong, Joseph Zen, a shanghai-born catholic who grew up in HK (first shanghainese pope?), was floated as a potential candidate. Of course, that one is a long shot.

Interestingly, there are actually odds offered on the papal election. According to the NYT, many bookies are taking bets on various stats relating to the papal election. Paddie Power, one of the larger bookies, is offering the following odds as I write this post:

Angelo Scola (Italy) – 9:4

Odilo Scherer (Brazil) – 4:1

Peter Turkson (Ghana) – 9:2

Marc Ouellet (Canada) – 10:1

Timothy Dolan (USA) – 20:1

Oddly enough, PaddiePower has a sense of humor when offering papal odds. For example, Richard Dawkins is offered at 666:1 odds, while Bono is listed as 1000:1 odds for election to the papacy. Other odds offered are 8:1 for any member of the College of Cardinals to break the Twitter ban during the Conclave, 4:1 odds that the next pope will be elected on the Ides of March, 1:1 for next pope to come from Italy (USA is listed as 8:1).

It's also possible that the conclave elects the next pope in the first ballot, which means that we could have a pope by midday today (who knows?). Anywho...I found the odds quite interesting...

btw I wonder how many of the cardinals will be updating fb once the white smoke appears?