the hubbert peak

3/11/10
74,921 mi.
351.5mi.
16.458 gal.
$3.159
$51.84

Standing at the chevron pump this morning, I began scribbling these numbers down on my little notebook. A habit my parents imposed upon me, I’ve been keeping notes on every time I’ve filled up at a pump since I was 16. For the first few years, it just seemed a hassle. Who wants to know this kind of info anyways? Then by the time I hit college, the basement statistician in me emerged, and I began throwing these numbers into an excel sheet, figuring out everything from the average life of a tank to the gas mileage efficiencies of my latest adventures. 21.36mpg average for this last tank. As I stood there, I watched the other cars at the pump: a Toyota Tundra, a Dodge Grand Caravan, and a Hyundai Sonata. There was a Toyota Prius parked at the air/water station, and an old Camry parked in the corner. As I watched the people fill up, I began to think about that one particular statistic, MPG. All the cars filling up were gas guzzlers, mine included.

Recently, the White House has been on a push to increase CAFÉ (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) standards. Basically, it’s a mandate to car manufacturers that by a certain date, they have to ensure that the average MPG of their line of cars meets a certain minimum. Of course, car manufacturers don’t like this. From seatbelts, to airbags, to the current fuel economy standards, the auto industry was dragged into each kicking and screaming. Now fuel economy is the latest battle that they’re gearing up for. This is especially dicey territory, since fuel efficiency is at the heart of the Obama administration’s energy strategy.

As I watched as the Tundra pull away from the filling station, I began to wonder why we have these vehicles to begin with? A quick trip to any other country will easily confirm that, outside the US, pickups and SUV’s aren’t at all that common. As the Tundra drove off in the distance, I then began to wonder, with the technology we have today, why we even put up with such inefficient cars. The answer, I quickly realized, lies with that fifth number I scrawled in my notebook: $3.159. as long as gas is $3 or $4 a gallon, we’ll complain and moan about how we’re getting gouged by the gas companies, how OPEC is colluding to keep gas at an artificial high, how much of our paycheck is going to transportation costs. We’ll complain and moan today, and then quietly go back to the pump and fill up tomorrow. Prices today are high enough to make us complain, to rail against oil companies, but not enough to make us do anything substantial about it.

Gas prices…aren’t high enough. If we really want to make grand strides with fuel economy, if we really want to push for development of alternative energy sources, if we really want to push for more efficient cars, we have to start with that gas price. Imposing a $5-$15 tax/gallon (yeah $15, that’s not a typo) not only helps edge the price to unbearable limits, but that initial pain at the pump will be enough to spur people to demand more efficiency out of their vehicles. M. King Hubbert asserts that oil production is on a bell curve, and production will increase exponentially until it reaches it’s peak, and then climb back down as resources dry up. He correctly predicted that US oil production would peak in the 1970’s, and then creep back down to today’s figures. The reason that OPEC is very careful about setting oil production figures is that they want the end price to be high enough to get a sizable profit, but not high enough where we will start looking for alternatives to oil. Gas prices need to be pushed to that far extreme, so it becomes an issue for discussion, sparking a national debate. In the meantime, that $5-15/gallon tax can be used to fund tax incentives for hybrid/electric vehicle development, alternative energy technology, etc.

$51.84. I could have bought 2 coffee tables at Ikea, lunch for more than a week, or a few new books. Instead, I was paying for gas. As I pulled away from the pump this morning, my mind was set, my wallet felt lighter, and my resolve grew stronger.